“UK business output hits 17-month low” states BDO LLP’s Business Trends Report

A decline in output across the services and manufacturing sectors has caused BDO’s Output Index to drop to its lowest level in 17 months, falling by 0.65 points to 96.04 in November. BDO’s Output Index, which is made up of BDO’s Manufacturing Output and Services Output indices, offers a snapshot of business productivity by weighting data from the UK’s main business surveys.

The constituent indices fell this month, with the Services Output Index sinking sharply by 0.72 points to 97.19 and Manufacturing Output also falling 0.16 points: the lowest point for each Index so far this year. This has been predominantly caused by businesses choosing to run down their stockpiles once a further extension to the Brexit deadline had been agreed.

The results round off a negative year for each of the Indexes that comprise BDO’s Business Trends Report. Every Index covered by the report (ie Optimism, Output, Employment and Inflation) is down on average compared to November last year. The biggest fall is the Manufacturing Output Index, which is down 10.47 points on average this year compared to last.

Commenting on the results, Peter Hemington (partner at BDO LLP) said: “November’s figures mark the end of a disappointing year for UK businesses. All indices have been driven down by continued political uncertainty and a worsening global economic climate. Businesses are in need of an injection of Christmas spirit, but current indications also point to a bleak December.”

Effect of the General Election

Meanwhile, BDO’s Optimism Index rose slightly throughout November, gaining 0.12 points to stand at 95.71. Such a rise is comparatively flat compared to the uplift in optimism seen in the run-up to previous General Elections. Ahead of the 2017 General Election, the Optimism Index jumped by 2.31 points. Ahead of the 2015 General Election, The Optimism Index rose 1.15 points

However, such rises are traditionally short-lived, with BDO’s Optimism Index tending to fall after General Elections.

Hemington added: “Optimism has risen boldly in the run-up to previous General Elections, which has offset declines once a new Government is in place. The fact that optimism remains comparatively sluggish could signal that a more dramatic slump in confidence is on the horizon.”

*To download BDO’s Business Trends New Economy Report visit www.neweconomy.bdo.co.uk

About the Author
Brian Sims BA (Hons) Hon FSyI, Editor, Risk UK (Pro-Activ Publications) Beginning his career in professional journalism at The Builder Group in March 1992, Brian was appointed Editor of Security Management Today in November 2000 having spent eight years in engineering journalism across two titles: Building Services Journal and Light & Lighting. In 2005, Brian received the BSIA Chairman’s Award for Promoting The Security Industry and, a year later, the Skills for Security Special Award for an Outstanding Contribution to the Security Business Sector. In 2008, Brian was The Security Institute’s nomination for the Association of Security Consultants’ highly prestigious Imbert Prize and, in 2013, was a nominated finalist for the Institute's George van Schalkwyk Award. An Honorary Fellow of The Security Institute, Brian serves as a Judge for the BSIA’s Security Personnel of the Year Awards and the Securitas Good Customer Award. Between 2008 and 2014, Brian pioneered the use of digital media across the security sector, including webinars and Audio Shows. Brian’s actively involved in 50-plus security groups on LinkedIn and hosts the popular Risk UK Twitter site. Brian is a frequent speaker on the conference circuit. He has organised and chaired conference programmes for both IFSEC International and ASIS International and has been published in the national media. Brian was appointed Editor of Risk UK at Pro-Activ Publications in July 2014 and as Editor of The Paper (Pro-Activ Publications' dedicated business newspaper for security professionals) in September 2015. Brian was appointed Editor of Risk Xtra at Pro-Activ Publications in May 2018.

Related Posts